PLEASE STOP WITH THE RANDOM EVENT REWARDS

1235

Comments

  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    edited April 28
    Ya  they ignore the 0 and 9. So there is not really 30 per set.

    Maybe he had gum and a quarter in his pocket also. 
  • AragornAragorn Posts: 284
    edited April 28
    Seth said:
    Lottery and gambling is guessing what is the next result, so pattern matters. Just guess it right one time and yay...

    In gaming, we just want to get a specific result (only), as many times as possible. Pattern does not really matter.

    In fact, I don't want to know if I am going to hit a wall soon :D


    Pattern does matter, and in fact, this is exactly one the reasons why you'll hit a wall. Don't forget this is a MMO, you're not the only one requesting a random number from the system. Let me copy and paste directly from uoguide.com the following example:

    For instance, consider the following sequence: 3965, 99, 18, 6933, 87, 12, 60, 23, 30, 78. One player may be receiving only the bolded numbers (39-33-30), and another only the italic numbers (65-69-60). Each player receives a sequence of very similiar numbers, and thus sees a repeated outcome. The overall sequence is fairly random, but for each player, they receive only a streak.
  • AragornAragorn Posts: 284
    Yoshi said:

    "it looks like there are 10 keys in this data set, 0-9 inclusive, not 8 keys"
    This is not the first time this guy has no idea what he is using as reference. So... just ignore it like I do now : )
  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    Aragorn said:
    Yoshi said:

    "it looks like there are 10 keys in this data set, 0-9 inclusive, not 8 keys"
    This is not the first time this guy has no idea what he is using as reference. So... just ignore it like I do now : )
    Like anything you have said is real.

    If you discount the 0 and 9 it is 8 random numbers. 
    Again you do not understand RNG and you only recourse is to say everything is wrong.
    You literally said math is not used earlier. Everything in the universe has a formula.

  • SethSeth Posts: 1,636
    Aragorn said:
    Seth said:
    Lottery and gambling is guessing what is the next result, so pattern matters. Just guess it right one time and yay...

    In gaming, we just want to get a specific result (only), as many times as possible. Pattern does not really matter.

    In fact, I don't want to know if I am going to hit a wall soon :D


    Pattern does matter, and in fact, this is exactly one the reasons why you'll hit a wall. Don't forget this is a MMO, you're not the only one requesting a random number from the system. Let me copy and paste directly from uoguide.com the following example:

    For instance, consider the following sequence: 3965, 99, 18, 6933, 87, 12, 60, 23, 30, 78. One player may be receiving only the bolded numbers (39-33-30), and another only the italic numbers (65-69-60). Each player receives a sequence of very similiar numbers, and thus sees a repeated outcome. The overall sequence is fairly random, but for each player, they receive only a streak.

    Thanks for the reference, I found the interesting article discussing about streaks.

    Even if there are streaks, it will be affected by the "chance". As mentioned e.g. Cu Sidhe has 1/23301, and in this quest there is only 1/8 assuming the weight is the same for all items. I don't think its as easy to hit a streak of 3 Blaze Cu spawning a the same time...



    If it ain't broke, don't fix it

  • YoshiYoshi Posts: 827
    edited April 28
    “No matter how good or bad the random number generator or pseudo random number generator is, or how many pairs you have, or how many quests you have done, I can absolutely assure each and every one of you, your chances are always 1 in 8”
    Posts on this account have been pre filtered from personal comment or opinion in an effort to suppress conservative views in order to protect the reader.
  • Arnold7Arnold7 Posts: 461
    Yes that is true.  You have a 1 in 8 chance on each try.  But in the long term there is another percentage based on how many times you try.  Do an internet search on probability multiple times.  

  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    edited April 28
    Yoshi said:
    “No matter how good or bad the random number generator or pseudo random number generator is, or how many pairs you have, or how many quests you have done, I can absolutely assure each and every one of you, your chances are always 1 in 8”
    That website also had a coin flip charts. The question was. Which is the result of real flips and flips someone made up.

    They chose one and said it was the real one because the fake one did not have any consecutive flips that did not have the same results more than four times in a row. Were 500 or so flips.

    When faking random scenario a human will think they should not get the same result many consecutive times.
  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    And since Mervyn agrees on 1 in 8.  @Aragorn can fight a losing battle with him.
  • AragornAragorn Posts: 284
    Seth said:
    Aragorn said:
    Seth said:
    Lottery and gambling is guessing what is the next result, so pattern matters. Just guess it right one time and yay...

    In gaming, we just want to get a specific result (only), as many times as possible. Pattern does not really matter.

    In fact, I don't want to know if I am going to hit a wall soon :D


    Pattern does matter, and in fact, this is exactly one the reasons why you'll hit a wall. Don't forget this is a MMO, you're not the only one requesting a random number from the system. Let me copy and paste directly from uoguide.com the following example:

    For instance, consider the following sequence: 3965, 99, 18, 6933, 87, 12, 60, 23, 30, 78. One player may be receiving only the bolded numbers (39-33-30), and another only the italic numbers (65-69-60). Each player receives a sequence of very similiar numbers, and thus sees a repeated outcome. The overall sequence is fairly random, but for each player, they receive only a streak.

    Thanks for the reference, I found the interesting article discussing about streaks.

    Even if there are streaks, it will be affected by the "chance". As mentioned e.g. Cu Sidhe has 1/23301, and in this quest there is only 1/8 assuming the weight is the same for all items. I don't think its as easy to hit a streak of 3 Blaze Cu spawning a the same time...



    Of course, but we're not talking about cu spawn here. We are talking about things that are supposed to be obtained easily (1 in 8 chance), how it could be easily affected by a bad RNG. 
  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    edited April 29
    Aragorn said:
    Of course, but we're not talking about cu spawn here. We are talking about things that are supposed to be obtained easily (1 in 8 chance), how it could be easily affected by a bad RNG. 

    What bad RNG what are your numbers?

    How many times have you done it how many Earrings have you received.

    Then break it down by item and lets see what you are calling bad RNG?

    Or are you basing this on some guy got 3 in 5 runs this don't work. 

    You have yet to explain why you think the RNG is bad.  Seth Showed you a very nice screen shot of every item he received. His RNG was not bad. 

    He just updated in another thread. He has done 100 runs and has 10 pair of earrings.  So one in 10.
    He still needs to do 4 runs to finish that pattern to make it divisible by 8, so he could get 4 earrings or none.

  • AragornAragorn Posts: 284
    edited April 29
    Pawain said:
    Aragorn said:
    Of course, but we're not talking about cu spawn here. We are talking about things that are supposed to be obtained easily (1 in 8 chance), how it could be easily affected by a bad RNG. 

    What bad RNG what are your numbers?

    How many times have you done it how many Earrings have you received.

    Then break it down by item and lets see what you are calling bad RNG?

    Or are you basing this on some guy got 3 in 5 runs this don't work. 

    You have yet to explain why you think the RNG is bad.  Seth Showed you a very nice screen shot of every item he received. His RNG was not bad. 
    This is the 2nd time you are asking me to provide my numbers. 

    Don't you realize, by now, I'm the first one who posted my numbers with a screenshot in this thread? 

    And this is the 2nd time I'm asking you to give me a break. Geezzz... You simply can't read. 


  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    edited April 29
    Aragorn said:
    DROP RATE NEEDS TO BE FIXED

    I got my ONLY pair of earrings at 14th run and now just finished my 24th and am still getting rubbish. 

    Take a look at what someone else is saying on FB, is this a FAIR GAME? 




    You did 24 runs and you proclaim the RNG is broken.

     :D 

    You have to do many more than that to establish anything. You are just short 2 hits.  You could make up for that in 2 runs.

    You could get a 4 in 7 run like that guy you quoted and be ahead. Geez.
  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    Lets do a coin flip test.  Ill flip 4 Times.

    H T H T.

    Wow its 100% chance to get heads on next flip.  Thats your understanding of RNG.
  • AragornAragorn Posts: 284
    edited April 29
    Pawain said:

    You did 24 runs and you proclaim the RNG is broken.

     :D 

    You have to do many more than that to establish anything. You are just short 2 hits.  You could make up for that in 2 runs.

    You could get a 4 in 7 run like that guy you quoted and be ahead. Geez.
    A typical mindset of if you are not a cook you can't be a food critic, and of course you haven't commented on a political event ever in your life because you've never run for any public office. 

    And you think I've quit the game since I've posted my first screenshot on page 1 of this thread while we're already in page 5 and believe I haven't done further run since then. You can always find amazing guys on a internet forum which you totally can't comprehend. 

    It's ok, really, give me a break please, for the one final time. 
  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    Please do.  You did 3 sets of 8 and determined UO non weighted RNG does not work.

    But you ignore someone who has done 100 runs and is just needs four more runs to do an even amount of sets and is 1 /10 but could go below 1/8 in those next runs. Seth

    You should go get a beer for such an accomplishment.
  • AragornAragorn Posts: 284
    edited April 29
    I've already commented Seth's case. Go back and read, sorry, you can't read. Forget what I said. 

    And you continue to ignore the fact that I'm not the only one saying the drop rate is abnormal. Read the whole thread again for god's sake. 
  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    Aragorn said:
    I've already commented Seth's case. Go back and read, sorry, you can't read. Forget what I said. 

    And you continue to ignore the fact that I'm not the only one saying the drop rate is abnormal. Read the whole thread again for god's sake. 

    YOU LITERALLY ARE THE ONLY ONE THAT SAYS THE RNG IS BROKEN!

    You are the one who needs to read it again.

    Lets see:
    The OP is about wanting all the items that drop to be useful. Then he says he wants to turn the drops in for earrings. He is not mentioning the RNG.

    Page 1. 
    A player said they did it 21 times and got 3 earrings.  Within the 1/8
    Then you posted you did it 24 times and got 1 and proclaimed in all caps that the RNG is broken.

    Page 2.
    I dispute your RNG is broken.
    A poster says he is 0/19 but does not say RNG is broken just wants an end date.
    Then you ramble about liars in FB.
    Seth shows his results for many runs and does not say RNG is broken
    A poster says there are solutions if you are having unhappy RNG. But says the drop rate is generous for the earring compared to other things.
    A poster agrees.
    A poster says the drop chance is 1 in 8

    Page 3.
    Begins with a Meme about RNG
    A poster compares complains about RNG to housing  (Not sure why)
    A poster agrees with OP that there should be more useful items and suggests a individual quest for earrings.
    A poster says the other drops are cool.
    A poster says there should be more practical rewards.
    A poster asks if Powerscroll drops have equal value and likes the other rewards
    A poster comments on roof drops not using an equal value system.
    A poster says drop the stuff you dont like on the ground.
    A poster syas the more runs you do the more earrings you get.
    A poster says he doesn't have enough time to get the items he wants
    A poster rambles about lunch
    A poster sys buy earrings if you dont have time.
    A poster rebuts and prefers his suggested method.
    Abacus is not shard bound
    At least 10 weeks left to do quest
    A poster took 22 tries to get a pair. No proclamations or opinion about RNG
    Someone advises a re check of a posters math
    Then we talk about how much time the quest takes
    A poster shows his results 35 quests 7 earrings
    A poster speaks for the devs about RNG but has no issue with it
    A poster explains the RNG is each time you complete the quest it does not keep track of what you get.

    Page 4
    A bunch of posts saying it is a 1 in 8 chance to get a specific item
    A poster talks about time it takes
    A poster calls us Nerds
    More examples of how RNG works
    Some lottery discussion
    Aardvark
    More RNG talk
    A poster asks what to do if we have bad luck and wa

    Page 5
    More 1 in 8 talk
    us arguing
    You claiming that you are not the only one saying the RNG is broken.

    But you are the only one saying that....

  • MariahMariah Posts: 1,854Moderator
    Is this thread going anywhere other than round and around in circles? or should I lock it now?
  • SethSeth Posts: 1,636
    edited April 29
    The same PRNG system is used in almost every aspect of this game (and I believe most games?). There will not be any outcome from the discussion that will change the system.

    Some players complain about the event/game design rather than providing walkthroughs, tips, strategies, tactics to beat the game. Its like trying to change the game to suit you.

    Pawain provided tips for the quest, e.g. reminded us about making use of the champ spawn, and using area spell to get looting rights. 

    If you do not like this quest, you can always buy the item from other players. It applies to everything else in this game. I could not get enough Leurocian Mempos, desp. quivers, cameo, Jumus, and have been buying  some from other players. Or I can just bite the bullet and do the quests 100 times. Or should I ask the Dev to make it easier for me to get the above? Alright, back to the game. 



    If it ain't broke, don't fix it

  • Mariah said:
    Is this thread going anywhere other than round and around in circles? or should I lock it now?
    We could probably get a couple of more laps out of it. but as far as them being productive . . .
    A Goblin, a Gargoyle, and a Drow walk into a bar . . .

    Never be afraid to challenge the status quo

  • McDougleMcDougle Posts: 1,924
    So the RNG has determined we make it 5 pages before IBTL??
  • BilboBilbo Posts: 2,834
    IBTL
  • Arnold7Arnold7 Posts: 461
    Maybe to avoid threads like this in future just give the deco items players get over and over again some value next time so players can turn them in for something they can use or sell.  Check vendor search pretty often and price this deco stuff accordingly but have not sold a single item and based on what I see other payers are not selling much, if anything, either.  It’s not the random generator that’s the problem, even if it is not that random.  It’s the rewards that have no use taking up inventory space.  Glassblowing tools that worked and a crucible that functioned as a mortise and pestle might have at least been of use to players that use them.  Don’t really like playing for rewards that will be either on my vendor indefinitely or thrown away.

  • dvviddvvid Posts: 537
    No one is really going to be buying any of the deco until sometime after the event is over so I wouldn’t really expect a sale anytime soon. 

    Throwing them away instead doesn’t really sit well either. Idk maybe make a new character or maybe use a less used character’s bank box to store the stuff for now if it’s an issue. 

    Also @Pawain thanks for the thread summary. I was not willing to read all of the pages so that was helpful lol
  • SethSeth Posts: 1,636
    edited April 29
    Arnold7 said:
    It’s not the random generator that’s the problem, even if it is not that random. 

    +1.

    Players should be talking about the rewards, the carrot at the end of the stick.

    e.g. last round we talked about shard bound, and all of Morphius are only sold on auction boxes on Atlantic and non-existent on my shard (at least). Non-shard bound like first aid belt etc prices are much lower - as long as their drop rate is not as bad as the Leurocian Mempo. I have another 10 first aid belt in my inventory waiting to sell, and it won’t be like more than 50m at this time. If supply is high and less restrictions the prices will not be crazy.

    If your shard is too busy, you can always transfer to a Low pop shard to get the rewards faster since they are not shard bound. This will further boost the supply for more arties.

    I am expecting these earring prices should drop significantly later but since it has 255/255, non pofable, the prices might go back up later... hint hint.

    Out of topic but why no one talked about these? 
    If it ain't broke, don't fix it

  • AragornAragorn Posts: 284
    edited April 30
    Mariah said:
    Is this thread going anywhere other than round and around in circles? or should I lock it now?
    @Mariah Please do. I need to make a correction that that guy isn't "can't read". He's simply BLIND. I said I'm not the only saying the drop rate is abnormal, and here are some references for other people who can read.

    consider yourself lucky. it took me 22 attempts to get my first pair.....

    and this:

    I know a man who didn't get a single pair of earrings in 29 runs.

    and this:

    The RNG has never worked consistently to anyone's satisfaction, including the game devs.

    and this:

    it has really happened between me, and my guildmates. 1 person spends at least 20 hours of his real life time on multiple quests, and gets nothing. 1 person spends 90 minutes on 3 quests, and gets 3 x earrings in a row = 600m. These examples are happening within my guild on a fairly frequent basis

    and let's not forget the original OP!!

    This is getting tedious ALREADY, and not fun doing over 20 quests so far and getting 1 pair of earrings.  

    I'm feeling myself stupid doing these pointless references, so Yes Mariah, please just lock the thread. 
  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    Aragorn said:
    it has really happened between me, and my guildmates. 1 person spends at least 20 hours of his real life time on multiple quests, and gets nothing. 1 person spends 90 minutes on 3 quests, and gets 3 x earrings in a row = 600m. These examples are happening within my guild on a fairly frequent basis

    I'm feeling myself stupid doing these pointless references, so Yes Mariah, please just lock the thread. 
    RANDOM number generator  RNG.  It is not supposed to be equal drops for everyone.
    It's why it was so difficult to get 8 different virtue tiles for that quest.

    2 people stated they got unlucky RNG.  They did not state it was broken.  It was in my summary.

    Again you show examples that prove RNG is random.

    Also I bought a pair on Atl for 150M the first full day it was active,  I have bought 2 more pair 125M and 130M on LS. They were only 200M+ for a few hours.

    The quest is great for new or returning players.  Only the Yamandon is difficult. And they have a CHANCE to get a 100M + item.  Which they could get in 1 run  or 16.
  • AragornAragorn Posts: 284
    edited April 30
    Pawain said:
    Aragorn said:
    it has really happened between me, and my guildmates. 1 person spends at least 20 hours of his real life time on multiple quests, and gets nothing. 1 person spends 90 minutes on 3 quests, and gets 3 x earrings in a row = 600m. These examples are happening within my guild on a fairly frequent basis

    I'm feeling myself stupid doing these pointless references, so Yes Mariah, please just lock the thread. 
    RANDOM number generator  RNG.  It is not supposed to be equal drops for everyone.
    It's why it was so difficult to get 8 different virtue tiles for that quest.

    So wrong. Thanks for giving another example to show this is a biased RNG, if, again, the drop rate is supposed to be 1/8 for the virtue tiles. 
  • PawainPawain Posts: 5,158
    Aragorn said:
    Pawain said:
    Aragorn said:
    it has really happened between me, and my guildmates. 1 person spends at least 20 hours of his real life time on multiple quests, and gets nothing. 1 person spends 90 minutes on 3 quests, and gets 3 x earrings in a row = 600m. These examples are happening within my guild on a fairly frequent basis

    I'm feeling myself stupid doing these pointless references, so Yes Mariah, please just lock the thread. 
    RANDOM number generator  RNG.  It is not supposed to be equal drops for everyone.
    It's why it was so difficult to get 8 different virtue tiles for that quest.

    So wrong. Thanks for giving another example to show this is a biased RNG, if, again, the drop rate is supposed to be 1/8 for the virtue tiles. 
    Which item is is biased towards?  If its not earrings, how did your guildies get 3 in a row?

    You are the one who has been wrong this whole thread.  1 in 8 chance.  Just like the 1 in 8 chance for virtue tiles.  The next quest event will probably have 8 items also.  Notice that non random pattern?  But it is only a set of 2, too early to jump to conclusions.
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