PLEASE STOP WITH THE RANDOM EVENT REWARDS

Pawain

Are you proving RNG?

Aragorn

Pawain said:

Are you proving RNG?

Obviously, which is one of the most notorious BUGs in the game which should have been fixed 10 years ago and if not, what this OP's title has suggested as alternative.  

Pawain

I doubt many people would be playing if we get the drops every time we do content.

When we do the roof we should get a drop down menu to choose our reward?  Or a spawn, we get a drop down to choose what scrolls we get?

Seth

If you compare to 95% of the other contents for best artifacts, its better and fair. I am still puzzled why is everyone expecting these earrings to drop like flies.

• Let's bring back Paragons and point system.
• For a non-shard bound, rare earring slot like this its worth 200 points of Minor Arties.
• Make it one month only, stop after the next event start.
• Make it 1 per character per account per shard.

I am going to cover my ears, as the remaining player base who is quiet will come back here to rebel with 100 threads.

RNG is not a bug, not everybody strike Lotto everyday, not everybody has a winning luck of 1/13,000,000. Mine is 0/130,000,000.

Aragorn

Seth said:

RNG is not a bug, not everybody strike Lotto everyday, not everybody has a winning luck of 1/13,000,000. Mine is 0/130,000,000.

which is what I'm suggesting RNG should not be a lotto per se. Every one should receive a similar drop rate even the drop rate is extremely low. I never suggest good reward should be easy to get, but it shouldn't be easy to get for a few, but very difficult to get for the others. Again, this is NOT a lotto. You know what's one of the common answers when someone has no luck in getting a particular reward? "Try with another character" This just makes me laugh every time to show how this RNG BUG sucks.  

Aragorn

Pawain said:

I doubt many people would be playing if we get the drops every time we do content.

When we do the roof we should get a drop down menu to choose our reward?  Or a spawn, we get a drop down to choose what scrolls we get?

Again you've twisted what I've said. "Making the drop rate consistent among players" equals to "requesting to get a drop every time"? or "making rewards non random" equals to "requesting to get a drop every time" ? I have totally no idea how you'd arrive at that. 

Fortis

im 0/19 myself on earring..but i wont link a Facebook message from someone saying he got 4 pairs has a reference....but yeah the end date need to be said so much shit going around for the end time @kyronix we just want to know a end date approximatelly

Pawain

Fortis said:

im 0/19 myself on earring..but i wont link a Facebook message from someone saying he got 4 pairs has a reference....but yeah the end date need to be said so much shit going around for the end time @ kyronix we just want to know a end date approximatelly

He said it would end at the end of this event cycle. Since the last one starts mid June and it is Treasures of Wildfire. This may end in Mid July. So you have quite a few days to do this event.

Kyronix Posts: 885Dev

April 19 Flag

Lex said:

@ Kyronix
will these earrings be available in the future? Or have some way of repairing them? Would be said if once they are used, they are gone. Jewels not being pof:able and all.

They will be available for the duration of the event cycle.  As to whether we add them to future distributions remains TBD.

Pawain

I have done the Roof many more times than I have done this and never had a cameo drop on me. Or even a Hawkwinds.  Done Mel 100s of times never got the Ice Hair Dye.  Ive had to buy all those things from those who have gotten them.

My luck with the RNG worked. I got my 2nd at exactly drop 16. Which is not common.  I never get the rare color items from Tokens even tho I open hundreds.

Aragorn

Fortis said:

im 0/19 myself on earring..but i wont link a Facebook message from someone saying he got 4 pairs has a reference....

for sure they (as there are 2 messages not just 1 in my pic) are all lairs and cheaters and we're living in a pathetic world that no one can be trusted since the internet was invented I'm totally aware. 

Pawain

RNG is RNG.  Roll an 8 sided dice and write down what you get in 16 rolls, then do it again it will not be the same.  A guy on LS got 2 of 3 when it began but he has not gotten another.  You gonna call him a liar also?

Stay away from Craps in Vegas if you think you can predict randomness. Most of us bet against the roll being the statistically most probable outcome. 

dvvid

The other night I was playing Aggravation (board game). There was a moment I rolled the dice to 1 four times in a row. Must have been a bug?

Seth

Hmm, I literally killed 100s of Osiredon and did not get a single Small Soul Forge.

It was even harder to get, you have to find the super rare white fishing net, first.

And Osiredon runs in the sea and has life taint against sampires.

How come no one complained about the low chance and RNG for the Blaze Cu Sidhe. RNG is a bug and not fair! I should have equal chances like the guy selling it for 4 Platinums at Luna last weekend.

Pawain

  

Seth

dvvid said:

The other night I was playing Aggravation (board game). There was a moment I rolled the dice to 1 four times in a row. Must have been a bug?

The lottery is a bug, need to write a thesis for this and send to the gov.

Aragorn

Pawain said:

I have done the Roof many more times than I have done this and never had a cameo drop on me. Or even a Hawkwinds.  Done Mel 100s of times never got the Ice Hair Dye.  Ive had to buy all those things from those who have gotten them.

My luck with the RNG worked. I got my 2nd at exactly drop 16. Which is not common.  I never get the rare color items from Tokens even tho I open hundreds.

You still don't get what the issue is and trying to explain what rare item is. 

It's NOT an issue for cameo / ice hair dye / rare color items being rare and difficult to get. 

It IS an issue that you start seeing people (not just 1 and my fb pic is not the only place I've seen) on the internet (which must be a false claim right?) saying they are getting those rare item multiple times in far less runs than you have done. 

Seth

This is just one shard.

Aragorn

dvvid said:

The other night I was playing Aggravation (board game). There was a moment I rolled the dice to 1 four times in a row. Must have been a bug?

come on people, is it this difficult to understand? or nowadays people's intelligence is bugged? 

Rolling dice to 1 four times in a row by 1 person is not bugged. 

The moment you starting see more and more people saying they rolled a dice to 1 four times in a row, means the dice is bugged!!!!

Seth

That is what the meaning of random number generator, chances of getting in 1/2 is twice as good as 1/4, and 4 times than 1/8. But God knows you can still have 2 times back to back in 1/8, and missed 3 times in a row for 1/2. This is "random".

Pawain

Aragorn said:

Pawain said:

I have done the Roof many more times than I have done this and never had a cameo drop on me. Or even a Hawkwinds.  Done Mel 100s of times never got the Ice Hair Dye.  Ive had to buy all those things from those who have gotten them.

My luck with the RNG worked. I got my 2nd at exactly drop 16. Which is not common.  I never get the rare color items from Tokens even tho I open hundreds.

You still don't get what the issue is and trying to explain what rare item is. 

It's NOT an issue for cameo / ice hair dye / rare color items being rare and difficult to get. 

It IS an issue that you start seeing people (not just 1 and my fb pic is not the only place I've seen) on the internet (which must be a false claim right?) saying they are getting those rare item multiple times in far less runs than you have done. 

So you are saying players are getting more than 1 out of 8? Funny how everyone here is saying the opposite including you.  I do not know if your FB friends are lying.  But, you could get 4 in a row, RNG still applies.  You have a chance to get one of 8 items.  You can get the same item a few times in a row.  But if you do the quest hundreds of times it will even out.  I do not know how someone could cheat to get a specific drop.  Maybe they eat an apple then a pear and get earrings every time.  Maybe carry the other 7 items on you when you collect the reward and the game gives you the missing item?

Seth is averaging pretty close to 1 of 8.

Aragorn

Seth said:

That is what the meaning of random number generator, chances of getting in 1/2 is twice as good as 1/4, and 4 times than 1/8. But God knows you can still have 2 times back to back in 1/8, and missed 3 times in a row for 1/2. This is "random".

You know what's the issue with RNG in computer science and software programming? There is no TRUE random but only Pseudorandom so its randomness is as good as how it's being implemented and it has always been the issue in UO. 

Seth

Pawain said:

Seth is averaging pretty close to 1 of 8.

Yes, slightly better earlier, but I failed to get in the few last round. Its still better than 0.125 (1/8).

To be exact its 7/59 (0.118) on this shard, I stopped on the other shard. But who knows it may get worse again for 15 - 20 times for the next few run. Or I may hit 2 earrings in a row again too.

Seth

Aragorn said:

Seth said:

That is what the meaning of random number generator, chances of getting in 1/2 is twice as good as 1/4, and 4 times than 1/8. But God knows you can still have 2 times back to back in 1/8, and missed 3 times in a row for 1/2. This is "random".

You know what's the issue with RNG in computer science and software programming? There is no TRUE random but only Pseudorandom so its randomness is as good as how it's being implemented and it has always been the issue in UO. 

@Aragorn
Its ok sir, your account is not bugged or blacklisted by the GM... lol

I always suspect someone didn't like me. Whatever the random number theory is, its as random as any other part in this game, so lets carry on.

No offense for any jokes posted earlier.

Aragorn

Pawain said:

Aragorn said:

Pawain said:

I have done the Roof many more times than I have done this and never had a cameo drop on me. Or even a Hawkwinds.  Done Mel 100s of times never got the Ice Hair Dye.  Ive had to buy all those things from those who have gotten them.

My luck with the RNG worked. I got my 2nd at exactly drop 16. Which is not common.  I never get the rare color items from Tokens even tho I open hundreds.

You still don't get what the issue is and trying to explain what rare item is. 

It's NOT an issue for cameo / ice hair dye / rare color items being rare and difficult to get. 

It IS an issue that you start seeing people (not just 1 and my fb pic is not the only place I've seen) on the internet (which must be a false claim right?) saying they are getting those rare item multiple times in far less runs than you have done. 

So you are saying players are getting more than 1 out of 8? Funny how everyone here is saying the opposite including you.  I do not know if your FB friends are lying.  But, you could get 4 in a row, RNG still applies.  You have a chance to get one of 8 items.  You can get the same item a few times in a row.  But if you do the quest hundreds of times it will even out.  I do not know how someone could cheat to get a specific drop.  Maybe they eat an apple then a pear and get earrings every time.  Maybe carry the other 7 items on you when you collect the reward and the game gives you the missing item?

Seth is averaging pretty close to 1 of 8.

What I am saying is, if it's TRULY RANDOM

EVERYONE should be observing a similar drop rate.

If my argument is to be proven wrong, we should be seeing Seth's case to be the majority (if the drop rate is indeed 1/8) But as you've also stated, it's biased towards one end now. 

NOT a few people getting 4 earrings in 10 runs.

NOT a few people getting only 1 earrings in 30 runs, or not even 1 in 20 runs. 

Seth

I also hit a straight no earring for 15 - 20 runs, but I also had 2 earrings back to back. But as Pawain says, normally it evens out as the data gets more.

Anyone playing bacarrat in casino should know this, its only 1/3 (so it seems), player, banker and tie. If anyone can catch a "pattern" in random occurrence, we will be rich. I would like that too.

Ok, end of discussion for me here.

Aragorn

Seth said:

Aragorn said:

Seth said:

That is what the meaning of random number generator, chances of getting in 1/2 is twice as good as 1/4, and 4 times than 1/8. But God knows you can still have 2 times back to back in 1/8, and missed 3 times in a row for 1/2. This is "random".

You know what's the issue with RNG in computer science and software programming? There is no TRUE random but only Pseudorandom so its randomness is as good as how it's being implemented and it has always been the issue in UO. 

I always suspect someone didn't like me. 

So your pic has proven the otherwise, you're definitely one of the most beloved persons blessed by GM in this event!

Don't worry about the jokes, I'm not offended and just trying to make a point here. 

Seth

Aragorn said:

Seth said:

Aragorn said:

Seth said:

That is what the meaning of random number generator, chances of getting in 1/2 is twice as good as 1/4, and 4 times than 1/8. But God knows you can still have 2 times back to back in 1/8, and missed 3 times in a row for 1/2. This is "random".

You know what's the issue with RNG in computer science and software programming? There is no TRUE random but only Pseudorandom so its randomness is as good as how it's being implemented and it has always been the issue in UO. 

I always suspect someone didn't like me. 

So your pic has proven the otherwise, you're definitely one of the most beloved persons blessed by GM in this event!

Don't worry about the jokes, I'm not offended and just trying to make a point here. 

Thanks, hope you can get several earrings and beat my record soon. I am sure there are others with better luck than me.

Gwen

Aragorn wrote:

What I am saying is, if it's TRULY RANDOM

EVERYONE should be observing a similar drop rate.

If my argument is to be proven wrong, we should be seeing Seth's case to be the majority (if the drop rate is indeed 1/8) But as you've also stated, it's biased towards one end now. 

NOT a few people getting 4 earrings in 10 runs.

NOT a few people getting only 1 earrings in 30 runs, or not even 1 in 20 runs. 

There are lots of solutions if you unhappy with RNG in this event. 
1- you go to Medusa or Shadowguard trying to get a Slither or Cameo. Then trade to earrings. I got a Cameo this way. Somebody got my earrings. 
2- you go and try to place a house. Learn how to script it , than sell or exchange. I got a new house just yesterday trading earrings. 
3- you go and kill mobs. Tsuki Wolf give you 1000 gold. No RNG (really small influence) at all.  According to current prices on ATL you just need to kill 200.000 Tsukis and you got your earrings!         
Lots of people are trying to sell their earrings at the moment.  190-200M on Atl. But even with 1/8 (for me) or 1/30 for some  it is way faster to get earrings by grinding quest than killing  zillions Naveries to get 7-10 Tangles or Coras for 3 Human Hephaestos. . 
Try to calculate yourself and you will see : this event's drop rate is very-very generous!   

Cookie

Gwen said:

There are lots of solutions if you unhappy with RNG in this event. 

3- you go and kill mobs. Tsuki Wolf give you 1000 gold. No RNG (really small influence) at all.  According to current prices on ATL you just need to kill 200.000 Tsukis and you got your earrings!   

     
Lots of people are trying to sell their earrings at the moment.  190-200M on Atl. But even with 1/8 (for me) or 1/30 for some  it is way faster to get earrings by grinding quest than killing  zillions Naveries to get 7-10 Tangles or Coras for 3 Human Hephaestos. . 
Try to calculate yourself and you will see : this event's drop rate is very-very generous!   

I am having issues with this event, I moan with guildies the entire time, but I am not stressed about it as such, I don't mean my post here to be a complaining one - yet!

I agree with you on a couple of things @Gwen - Yes, the drop-rate is very generous overall. That cannot be denied.

I also agree with you, there are other means - and it may get to the point I decide I may prefer other means - I like your Tsuki wolf one ! I may be better off doing that instead.

I will accept I have sympathy for the guys where drops are not happening - the comparison is this - and this is a real game scenario, it has really happened between me, and my guildmates. 1 person spends at least 20 hours of his real life time on multiple quests, and gets nothing. 1 person spends 90 minutes on 3 quests, and gets 3 x earrings in a row = 600m. These examples are happening within my guild on a fairly frequent basis, and it surely feels a bit demotivating when you are on the wrong side of the coin. I can understand players who would question fairness.

Yoshi

Aragorn said:
What I am saying is, if it's TRULY RANDOM

EVERYONE should be observing a similar drop rate.

“Hi, I’m not sure you understand the concept of random. The drop rate of the earrings is around 1 in 8. You could do the quest 80 times and get 80 earrings, the likely outcome is you’ll get around 10 pairs”