PLEASE STOP WITH THE RANDOM EVENT REWARDS

Aragorn

Bilbo said:

Aragorn said:

Drago said:

Aragorn said:

DROP RATE NEEDS TO BE FIXED

I got my ONLY pair of earrings at 14th run and now just finished my 24th and am still getting rubbish. 

Take a look at what someone else is saying on FB, is this a FAIR GAME? 

consider yourself lucky. it took me 22 attempts to get my first pair.....

AND you still consider yourselves just an "unlucky" one and the RNG is working perfectly? 

It's ok people, I'm really not bothered to discuss this anymore. There are always people who think they lose money at the casino because they are just "unlucky", and more than happy to go back and "try their luck", despite everyone knows all the games (read: RNG!) in the casino are manipulated and biased.

You do understand that UO does not keep track of what you have gotten in the past during this event.  A new roll is rolled every time you do a run and you have equal odds to roll a 1-8 as you do a 2-8, 3-8, 4-8, 5-8, 6-8, 7-8 or 8-8.  Your next run will have the same odds as the run before it.  That is how a true RNG works.  Funny how you use a Casino as an example because if a machine starts to pay out to much that machine is taken out of service the minute the player leaves and the machine has a full diag done on it.  If the Gaming Commission catches them rigging any machine they will be shut down asap and a team will go in and test all machines/tables/everything and if found in violation they face big FINES and possible shut down.  You really have no clue what you are talking about when it comes to UO RNG and Casinos and I bet you even think the use marked cards.

It's funny how you assumed RNG works perfectly in computer programming and there is no such things as perfect random you really have no clue what issue I'm pointing out here. For casino it seems you are too ignorant (no wonder you are still thinking about marked cards for sarcasm) to know the majority gambling businesses are now e-business which is subject to virtually NO regulation AT ALL. Please continue to stay in your fossil world and as I said, enough is enough and there is no point for me to continue on this topic onward anymore. 

Pawain

Aragorn said:

Bilbo said:

Aragorn said:

Drago said:

Aragorn said:

DROP RATE NEEDS TO BE FIXED

I got my ONLY pair of earrings at 14th run and now just finished my 24th and am still getting rubbish. 

Take a look at what someone else is saying on FB, is this a FAIR GAME? 

consider yourself lucky. it took me 22 attempts to get my first pair.....

AND you still consider yourselves just an "unlucky" one and the RNG is working perfectly? 

It's ok people, I'm really not bothered to discuss this anymore. There are always people who think they lose money at the casino because they are just "unlucky", and more than happy to go back and "try their luck", despite everyone knows all the games (read: RNG!) in the casino are manipulated and biased.

You do understand that UO does not keep track of what you have gotten in the past during this event.  A new roll is rolled every time you do a run and you have equal odds to roll a 1-8 as you do a 2-8, 3-8, 4-8, 5-8, 6-8, 7-8 or 8-8.  Your next run will have the same odds as the run before it.  That is how a true RNG works.  Funny how you use a Casino as an example because if a machine starts to pay out to much that machine is taken out of service the minute the player leaves and the machine has a full diag done on it.  If the Gaming Commission catches them rigging any machine they will be shut down asap and a team will go in and test all machines/tables/everything and if found in violation they face big FINES and possible shut down.  You really have no clue what you are talking about when it comes to UO RNG and Casinos and I bet you even think the use marked cards.

It's funny how you assumed RNG works perfectly in computer programming and there is no such things as perfect random you really have no clue what issue I'm pointing out here. For casino it seems you are too ignorant to know the majority gambling businesses are now e-business (no wonder you are still thinking about marked cards for sarcasm) which is subject to virtually NO regulation AT ALL. Please continue to stay in your fossil world and as I said, enough is enough and there is no point for me to continue on this topic onward anymore. 

Basic RNG like this is pretty easy for a computer.  And for UO. 
This is exactly like the RNG for the Virtue tiles.  No weights, 1 in 8 chance to get X item. 
Very difficult to get all 8 in 8 runs. 

They have weighted RNG for the Artisan festival and some posted results and Kyronix said they matched the intended weights.

The UO ring that is used for drops in encounters is based on weighted RNG, And it has some weird stuff in that part of the game.  But this quest does not used weighted values for items.

I understand you see no point to continue.  I can see why it is embarrassing to be wrong and refuse to show us numbers other than from a small sample of yours and others.  Others are posting higher amounts and the RNG is close enough to be within tolerance for 1 in 8 chance. 

Someone can get 4 earrings in 6 tries, but if they keep going, it will even out.  Someone can get 0 in 10 tries and if they keep going it evens out.

Aragorn

Pawain said:

Aragorn said:

Bilbo said:

Aragorn said:

You do understand that UO does not keep track of what you have gotten in the past during this event.  A new roll is rolled every time you do a run and you have equal odds to roll a 1-8 as you do a 2-8, 3-8, 4-8, 5-8, 6-8, 7-8 or 8-8.  Your next run will have the same odds as the run before it.  That is how a true RNG works.  Funny how you use a Casino as an example because if a machine starts to pay out to much that machine is taken out of service the minute the player leaves and the machine has a full diag done on it.  If the Gaming Commission catches them rigging any machine they will be shut down asap and a team will go in and test all machines/tables/everything and if found in violation they face big FINES and possible shut down.  You really have no clue what you are talking about when it comes to UO RNG and Casinos and I bet you even think the use marked cards.

It's funny how you assumed RNG works perfectly in computer programming and there is no such things as perfect random you really have no clue what issue I'm pointing out here. For casino it seems you are too ignorant to know the majority gambling businesses are now e-business (no wonder you are still thinking about marked cards for sarcasm) which is subject to virtually NO regulation AT ALL. Please continue to stay in your fossil world and as I said, enough is enough and there is no point for me to continue on this topic onward anymore. 

Basic RNG like this is pretty easy for a computer.  

The 1st sentence is already so wrong that i lost interest in reading the rest.

Pawain

Aragorn said:

The 1st sentence is already so wrong that i lost interest in reading the rest.

Sorry you do not understand that a computer can easily do math.  I see why you do not understand this subject.

Pawain

You can play with one here.  Do it 1000 times and show me it is not correct.

https://www.random.org

popps

Arnold7 said:

Not sure how many players can complete this quest in 40 minutes.  Seems a little unrealistic.  I play solo and sometimes with groups.  Have never completed the quest in less than an hour and a half.  Can see how some players might be able complete it in 40 minutes but don’t think most can.

Yes, an hour and a half is also moreless my time frame to complete the Quest.... I wonder how some players are able to do it in about 40 minutes.... let me guess, Sampires ?

popps

Pawain said:

We let the spawn go to the lions and stop. That way it always has beetles and kappas. 

I don't get serious about it but I can do it around 40 min. Because I use the same pattern when I do it. Just me and my dog.

Going with a Tamer, quite often I find my pet overwhelmed by Lesser Hiryus and Lions....

Unfortunately, calling my pet back most often does not work, it keeps going towards the spawn and, inevitably, it gets killed....  furthermore, I find myself spending more time having to kill Lesser Hiryus then what I need for the Quest....

The 3rd level of the Sleeping Dragon spawn might be good for a Warrior/Sampire, but not for a Tamer unless, I imagine, they have a level 5 pet with Whirwind and some good damage Area Damage special..... which I do not have.

Aragorn

Pawain said:

Aragorn said:

The 1st sentence is already so wrong that i lost interest in reading the rest.

Sorry you do not understand that a computer can easily do math.  I see why you do not understand this subject.

This is exactly why you are so wrong, that you believe randomness is achieved by maths. Have you actually read the website that you’ve found yourself? I don’t mind spoon feeding for the one last time, but please give me a break after this. You've already shown enough your lack of understanding of this subject. 

RANDOM.ORG uses radio receivers to pick up atmospheric noise, which is then used to generate random numbers. The radios are tuned between stations.

Victim_Of_Siege

Good God, Aren't we all just a bunch of Nerd's sitting here discussing and arguing about an RNG in a video game . . .

keven2002

Victim_Of_Siege said:

Good God, Aren't we all just a bunch of Nerd's sitting here discussing and arguing about an RNG in a video game . . .

  Basically. 

@Aragorn - you can use a coin as a basic example. Do you know how many times it will land on heads if you flip it 2 times? 10 times? 100 times? You can't say with certainty it will be exactly half but on average it will be around that. The more you do it the more data you have an the closer to the average it will be. Those are the basics of probability. Now let's say it was an 8 sided coin / dice... same concept...and same idea as the earrings quest. 

popps said:

Yes, an hour and a half is also moreless my time frame to complete the Quest.... I wonder how some players are able to do it in about 40 minutes.... let me guess, Sampires ?

Wrong again. Typical @popps just reading and commenting on whatever posts he thinks fit his illogical argument. Did you see my post where I used my necro to complete the quest solo in under an hour? The same with someone who used a bard. If I had did the quest with a couple others who also needed the quest and we did it together; I'm sure I could shave off 10-15min using my necro. I'm able to use my tamer (that's what you always use right?) to complete the quest solo in 35-40minutes depending on sleeping dragon spawn.... I must be cheating right?  

I feel like you literally look to use the slowest way possible to do things and then come to the forum to complain about it. You do not seem to look to improve in anyway to be more efficient and then say it's unfair... at least how you see it. When in reality, you have been told and offered numerous times ways to improve your efficiency or offered to play in a group and you continue to refuse it and just keep posting non-sense. I don't think the issue is with the events at this point but rather the player.

...at least that's the way I see it. 

Pawain

popps said:

Pawain said:

We let the spawn go to the lions and stop. That way it always has beetles and kappas. 

I don't get serious about it but I can do it around 40 min. Because I use the same pattern when I do it. Just me and my dog.

Going with a Tamer, quite often I find my pet overwhelmed by Lesser Hiryus and Lions....

Unfortunately, calling my pet back most often does not work, it keeps going towards the spawn and, inevitably, it gets killed....  furthermore, I find myself spending more time having to kill Lesser Hiryus then what I need for the Quest....

The 3rd level of the Sleeping Dragon spawn might be good for a Warrior/Sampire, but not for a Tamer unless, I imagine, they have a level 5 pet with Whirwind and some good damage Area Damage special..... which I do not have.

I have only used my tamer so far. Most on LS are using theirs. Control your pet and run consume. It can be surrounded and stay alive.

If you are having trouble then stay on the edges and control the pet and let things follow it until they are spaced out.

I don't know if my sampire could take the crowd of hiryus and onis that my pet could.

Have you tried a melee toon on this or you just making things up? 

Bilbo

Aragorn said:

Bilbo said:

Aragorn said:

Drago said:

Aragorn said:

DROP RATE NEEDS TO BE FIXED

I got my ONLY pair of earrings at 14th run and now just finished my 24th and am still getting rubbish. 

Take a look at what someone else is saying on FB, is this a FAIR GAME? 

consider yourself lucky. it took me 22 attempts to get my first pair.....

AND you still consider yourselves just an "unlucky" one and the RNG is working perfectly? 

It's ok people, I'm really not bothered to discuss this anymore. There are always people who think they lose money at the casino because they are just "unlucky", and more than happy to go back and "try their luck", despite everyone knows all the games (read: RNG!) in the casino are manipulated and biased.

You do understand that UO does not keep track of what you have gotten in the past during this event.  A new roll is rolled every time you do a run and you have equal odds to roll a 1-8 as you do a 2-8, 3-8, 4-8, 5-8, 6-8, 7-8 or 8-8.  Your next run will have the same odds as the run before it.  That is how a true RNG works.  Funny how you use a Casino as an example because if a machine starts to pay out to much that machine is taken out of service the minute the player leaves and the machine has a full diag done on it.  If the Gaming Commission catches them rigging any machine they will be shut down asap and a team will go in and test all machines/tables/everything and if found in violation they face big FINES and possible shut down.  You really have no clue what you are talking about when it comes to UO RNG and Casinos and I bet you even think the use marked cards.

It's funny how you assumed RNG works perfectly in computer programming and there is no such things as perfect random you really have no clue what issue I'm pointing out here. For casino it seems you are too ignorant (no wonder you are still thinking about marked cards for sarcasm) to know the majority gambling businesses are now e-business which is subject to virtually NO regulation AT ALL. Please continue to stay in your fossil world and as I said, enough is enough and there is no point for me to continue on this topic onward anymore. 

Simply amazing, every time you are proven wrong you change the rules.  You are the one that brought up CASINOs and I proved you 1000000000000000% WRONG so you change to online gambling which is another WRONG again because they would be busted out online and people would stop going there.  It has been PROVEN 10000000000000% that an honest game of chance the house always wins even is you have a couple of BIG winners you will always have more losers making up for it.
UO is running an honest RNG with this event because you have the same odds of getting 1 of 8 items when you finish the quest and if you decide to run another quest you have the same odds on that one too.
Here's betting that you will be back because you have already proven yourself wrong and the odds are that you will do it again and again.

Seth

Alright, I think the OP - @JackFlashUk did not intend to discuss about truly random or pseudo random numbers.

I was looking for an explanation of what we are experiencing here. ref. google:

They're what's called pseudo-random. ... They're actually generated by a known, deterministic process for generating a sequence of numbers, but that process generates a long series of apparently random numbers that doesn't repeat for a very long time.

It is suffice to know that as players, each run is just one-time number generation and each result will appear "random". Each run takes 30mins to over an hour. We are not going to collect enough data to see any pattern. And such pattern is unlikely useful in our quest (am I.... right? if not then how does the pattern help us get a drop?)

I think this is enough. We are not required to predict if or when we will get a drop, what is the seed, etc, as that does not matter.

Maybe online computer based casino, electronic jackpot machine etc is a bad example, but lotto is clearly truly random - I guess, they used physical balls to generate the results of the 6 numbers.

So everyone is correct in their own way.

The end result is still the same as what Jack was asking. He was comparing this P-RNG to the previous point-based system for exchanging reward.

Seth

There is perhaps a consolation if the quest is based on pseudo RNG which has repeatable, predictable pattern:

If we know someone actually strike say 3 earrings in just 7 run, we may have a chance to experience the same "pattern" too.

On the other hand, if a player experienced 40 runs before he get one drop, we may also get the same.

So... who cares, these are still "random" because you are not sure where you are in this P-RNG sequence now. Someone said he did first run and got the earrings, but not everyone start at the same position in the "predictable" number sequence and got the earrings on the first run. Doesn't this "appear" like a "random" occurence?

P.S. above is just a discussion for fun but will not get us any earrings.

Pawain

Casino games are never 50 50. Even the roulette wheel has 1 or 2 zeros. That's enough to make a person betting on red or black not break even or have a gain over 100s of spins. 
But, just like UO you could get 4 in a row in your favor or vise versa.

Cards and craps are never in the players favor. I sure miss playing blackjack and craps tho. We have a cruise planned for December.  I hope we can go.

Tim

Every time this comes up I'm reminded of an interview I saw with the chief mathematician for the local lottery. 

As he said the odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6, with the bonus number of 7 coming up are exactly the same as any other 7 numbers. Also the odd of them coming up on next weeks draw are exactly the same as they were for the first. The bouncing balls don't remember who got picked last week.

The only pattern in true random events is the one we make up to explain why the universe doesn't like us. (I personally hope it just has a really sick sense of humour).

PS If you think there is any randomness in casino games other then if you are in the small group of winners or the much lager other group come play at my place. Donations always welcome.

Victim_Of_Siege

Aardvark

Merus

Tim said:

Every time this comes up I'm reminded of an interview I saw with the chief mathematician for the local lottery. 

As he said the odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6, with the bonus number of 7 coming up are exactly the same as any other 7 numbers. Also the odd of them coming up on next weeks draw are exactly the same as they were for the first. The bouncing balls don't remember who got picked last week.

The only pattern in true random events is the one we make up to explain why the universe doesn't like us. (I personally hope it just has a really sick sense of humour).

PS If you think there is any randomness in casino games other then if you are in the small group of winners or the much lager other group come play at my place. Donations always welcome.

I believe the mathematician was incorrect, at least for the two major lotteries.... since they only have 5 numbers plus 1 bonus number, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6 + 7 is absolutely zero... which is just slightly less than all the other combinations.  <span></span>

Arnold7

Have not studied statistics for a long time but there are two probabilitys.  Your chances of getting something other than the earrings are 87.5%.

Arnold7

Opps, hit the wrong key.  The probability of not getting the earrings if you try 8 times is less than 87.5.

Arnold7

Have not studied statistics for a long time but there are two probabilities.  On any individual try your chances of not getting the earrings is 87.5%.  But if you do the quest more than once your probability of not getting the earrings decreases.  If you do the quest 8 times, your probability of not getting the earrings is 34.4% (87.5% to the 8th power.)  If you do the quest 16 times, your probability of not getting the earrings is 11.8%.  In other words if you do the quest 16 times your chances of getting the earrings is 88.2%.  Have done the quest now about 12 times and have one set but not sure the results are random. Have gotten the same rewards just too many times.  But, have not done the quest enough times to verify that.

twizag

And everything is solved very simply-give an alternative branch of this event. That is, you want to get 100% of the earrings-OK, for this you need to kill the same monsters but 4-5-6 times more. The rest can try their luck.

Seth

The odds are always fixed.

1 out of 23301 chance to get a Blaze Cu Sidhe to spawn. 

1 out of 8 chances to get a pair of earrings. 

Which of the above pseudo random rewards are you more likely to strike in the next 7 days?

The "truly" random national lottery,  is it easier to win than computer based pseudo rng? I don't think so.

I think this post was derailed long ago, but in essence it tells the Dev some players like the point system better than the PRng system. Nothing wrong, just personal preference.

Arnold7

Just one more observation.  Believe in the mine you need to farm the very end section with other players to get done as fast as possible.  Ratio of elders to priests to warriors appears to be 1 to 2 to 3 in that room.  If you just keep damaging every thing in the room, you can get out of the mine in a minimum amount of time.

Seth

Arnold7 said:

Just one more observation.  Believe in the mine you need to farm the very end section with other players to get done as fast as possible.  Ratio of elders to priests to warriors appears to be 1 to 2 to 3 in that room.  If you just keep damaging every thing in the room, you can get out of the mine in a minimum amount of time.

Yes, they give us simple mobs but spread thin all over the place. If the Dev can pack all 181 monsters into a small room, i think i can clear 1 run in less than 15mins.

Pawain

Arnold7 said:

Opps, hit the wrong key.  The probability of not getting the earrings if you try 8 times is less than 87.5.

You were right the first time. You have a 12.5% change to get earrings at each turn in. Or on the Debbie Downer side you have an 87.5% chance of getting something else each turn in.

I found an example that includes 8 items with a chance of any of the 8 on a try:



They found the average is 9 tries to get a specific item,
Notice they also got the item in 1 try and 16 tries.  With only 5 attempts where they kept going till they got it. 

If you break down each test they did 30 runs each time.

Trial 1 they got 3/30
Trial 2 they got 2/30
Trial 3 they got 4/30
Trial 4 they got 2/30
Trial 5 they got 2/30

So those fit a lot of UO players results in 30 runs.

Tim

Merus said:

Tim said:

Every time this comes up I'm reminded of an interview I saw with the chief mathematician for the local lottery. 

As he said the odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6, with the bonus number of 7 coming up are exactly the same as any other 7 numbers. Also the odd of them coming up on next weeks draw are exactly the same as they were for the first. The bouncing balls don't remember who got picked last week.

The only pattern in true random events is the one we make up to explain why the universe doesn't like us. (I personally hope it just has a really sick sense of humour).

PS If you think there is any randomness in casino games other then if you are in the small group of winners or the much lager other group come play at my place. Donations always welcome.

I believe the mathematician was incorrect, at least for the two major lotteries.... since they only have 5 numbers plus 1 bonus number, the odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6 + 7 is absolutely zero... which is just slightly less than all the other combinations.  <span></span>

Only in you little corner of the world. Lotteries in Canada (checking ticket) are 7 numbers.

And totally TAX FREE  paid in 1 lump sum 

Seth

Lottery and gambling is guessing what is the next result, so pattern matters. Just guess it right one time and yay...

In gaming, we just want to get a specific result (only), as many times as possible. Pattern does not really matter.

In fact, I don't want to know if I am going to hit a wall soon

twizag

- сказал Сет.:

Шансы всегда фиксированы:

1 из 23301 шанс получить Блейз Ку Сидхе на нерест.

1 из 8 шансов получить пару сережек.

Какую из вышеперечисленных псевдослучайных наград вы с большей вероятностью получите в ближайшие 7 дней?

"Истинно" случайная национальная лотерея, легче ли выиграть, чем компьютерный псевдо-ГСЧ? Я думаю

, что этот пост был сорван давным-давно, но по сути он говорит разработчику, что некоторым игрокам система очков нравится больше, чем система PRng. Ничего плохого, просто личные предпочтения.

I know a man who didn't get a single pair of earrings in 29 runs.The question is fundamentally what? To change the system of receiving-my suggestion is that Anyone who wants can participate in the lottery ,the second option is to kill a certain (larger) number and get GUARANTEED this or that thing. This is in my opinion a simple and correct solution

Yoshi

Pawain said:

Arnold7 said:

Opps, hit the wrong key.  The probability of not getting the earrings if you try 8 times is less than 87.5.

You were right the first time. You have a 12.5% change to get earrings at each turn in. Or on the Debbie Downer side you have an 87.5% chance of getting something else each turn in.

I found an example that includes 8 items with a chance of any of the 8 on a try:



They found the average is 9 tries to get a specific item,
Notice they also got the item in 1 try and 16 tries.  With only 5 attempts where they kept going till they got it. 

If you break down each test they did 30 runs each time.

Trial 1 they got 3/30
Trial 2 they got 2/30
Trial 3 they got 4/30
Trial 4 they got 2/30
Trial 5 they got 2/30

So those fit a lot of UO players results in 30 runs.

"it looks like there are 10 keys in this data set, 0-9 inclusive, not 8 keys"