Stage 3 reward probability - is it broken?

keven2002

I haven't seen this anywhere else so I figured I would ask here.

I assumed I was just victim of bad RNG for the first couple weeks, but now that we are approaching the 1 month point and I've done at least 1 run every single day with multiple toons trying multiple tactics and STILL have yet to get an obelisk (and only 3 banners) I am starting to wonder if something is broken (or maybe just me?). I don't have an exact count on how many satchels I've received since the event started but it's well over 250 at this point and 95% of the drops I've gotten have been rubble or items (I feel like it's 60/40 rubble there). I have 15 cubes and 3 banners...and zero obelisk. Even if the drop rate is 1% for the obelisks I should have at least gotten 1 at this point.

@Community Manager - Can you help us with the the intended drop rate on the satchel contents (ie rubble/riftborne items/cubes/banners/obelisks)? 

The math ain't quite mathing here. There are SIX possible hues to get with a MAX chance of 5 rounds (stage 3) in a 24 hour period but more realistically it's 4 rounds per shard (and that's ATL). You will need to cross shard to do anything more than 4 rounds in a day (and time things perfectly). So if I were to hit every single stage 3 on ATL for a month straight that would be 120 satchels (4 drops per day times 30 days)... I've done over twice that (multiple accounts) and STILL haven't received a single obelisk. I get it if they are supposed to be less common but at this rate the average single player with 1 or 2 accounts would have to play 24/7 hitting stage 3 on multiple shards perfectly for the entire event to receive maybe 1 out of 6 hues.... that doesn't make sense. 

I've tried using a luck suit, using different toon types, aiming for max damage done vs most damage taken/healed, doing the rounds consistently with the same toon (ie my bard)....and nothing seems like it goes towards what goes in the satchel. I've done tons of damage (and taken damage) to only get a bag of rubble and then I've been dead while getting a satchel and get a cube... doesn't seem like what you actually do during the fight impacts what you get... it's just random with some sort of probability added on top to give rubble/items most of the time. Honestly it's a bit deflating to have done so many rounds and gotten so many satchels without getting more banners/obelisks... if anything I think THAT deserves some sort of hotfix.

Can anyone confirm/debunk my findings? 

Community Manager

I am unable to assist with the drop rate. Unfortunately, it is 100% RNG. Sometimes you're lucky, other times you're not. 

keven2002

Community Manager said:

I am unable to assist with the drop rate. Unfortunately, it is 100% RNG. Sometimes you're lucky, other times you're not. 

I'm reading this as all items have the same chance to drop; ie there are 5 possible satchels so they all have a 20% chance of dropping?

Lokea

I've had well over 60 runs (two a day, sometimes 3, it works out with my time zone and schedule).

• 1x Obelisk
• 2x banners ("common" versions apparently)
• 2x void cubes
• 1x scorched earth

And it's been quite a while since I got anything other than ingredients. My RNG is junk, lol.

keven2002

Lokea said:

I've had well over 60 runs (two a day, sometimes 3, it works out with my time zone and schedule).

• 1x Obelisk
• 2x banners ("common" versions apparently)
• 2x void cubes
• 1x scorched earth

And it's been quite a while since I got anything other than ingredients. My RNG is junk, lol.

Thanks for sharing... that's interesting because you have a fraction of the runs I do, yet you have more obelisks and almost as many banners.

Grimbeard

To clarify what can I find in hidden chest that require stealing 

firec

Grimbeard said:

To clarify what can I find in hidden chest that require stealing 

I've been doing chests between every round I could. So far the only thing I've found anyone is stealing is my time.

keven2002

Grimbeard said:

To clarify what can I find in hidden chest that require stealing 

Wrong thread for this, but the only stealable from the chests is the ethereal prism.

NuSair

My wife and I have been doing 2-3 a day every day since the event started. 

• 0x Obelisk
• 9x banners 
• 7x void cubes
• 0x scorched earth

Theo

• 0x Obelisk
• 2x banners 
• 11x void cubes
• 6x scorched earth

keven2002

Quick update since last post (I added 1 banner to my list in 15 additional attempts):

• 0x Obelisk
• 4x banners 
• 16x void cubes
• 8x scorched earth

My void cubes and scorched earth are higher because I've gotten 2 or 3 cubes off of the mobs while opening the gates as well as probably 4-5 scorched rubble.

Lokea

keven2002 said:

Lokea said:

I've had well over 60 runs (two a day, sometimes 3, it works out with my time zone and schedule).

• 1x Obelisk
• 2x banners ("common" versions apparently)
• 2x void cubes
• 1x scorched earth

And it's been quite a while since I got anything other than ingredients. My RNG is junk, lol.

Thanks for sharing... that's interesting because you have a fraction of the runs I do, yet you have more obelisks and almost as many banners.

If it makes you feel any better, in my last 6 attempts (only one account doing this at a time), my only reward outside of void orbs/artifact drops was 4 void cubes.

My RNG luck is really bad. I'd happily take the scorched earth or banners, as my son is collecting the scorched earth and I could sell the banners for a decent amount.

I'm going to keep doing them because they are fun and LS is well-organized and it's a fun group of people, plus I want to pick up a few reward items that might be worth something down the road.

Seth

I have 1 banner and 0 obelisk for first month. 

This increases the value of the reward and encourages participation. 

If everyone gets one for the first month, less players will join to breach the wall in the second month. 

Since its RNG, imagine if you are unlucky and the last of the lot to get in the first month. In the end, you are the only one left trying to breach the wall and fight the boss. 

keven2002

Seth said:

I have 1 banner and 0 obelisk for first month. 

This increases the value of the reward and encourages participation. 

If everyone gets one for the first month, less players will join to breach the wall in the second month. 

Since its RNG, imagine if you are unlucky and the last of the lot to get in the first month. In the end, you are the only one left trying to breach the wall and fight the boss. 

That's a good way to look at it. My initial post was just asking about how the drops are determined... sounds like it should be equal (CM never confirmed)?? If that's the case I do think it's broken and should be looked at. If it's like 5% will be Obelisk then 10% banners and 20% void cubes etc then I get it and that's just RNG.

Really was just trying to clarify, but my opinion is that it's the latter situation where it's weighted since everyone here has less Obelisks than all other drops and banners seem like the second least (except for one person).

MsScarlett

I have done about 3 per day since start and have gotten 2 obelisks yet no banner lol. So random

Seth

keven2002 said:

Seth said:

I have 1 banner and 0 obelisk for first month. 

This increases the value of the reward and encourages participation. 

If everyone gets one for the first month, less players will join to breach the wall in the second month. 

Since its RNG, imagine if you are unlucky and the last of the lot to get in the first month. In the end, you are the only one left trying to breach the wall and fight the boss. 

That's a good way to look at it. My initial post was just asking about how the drops are determined... sounds like it should be equal (CM never confirmed)?? If that's the case I do think it's broken and should be looked at. If it's like 5% will be Obelisk then 10% banners and 20% void cubes etc then I get it and that's just RNG.

Really was just trying to clarify, but my opinion is that it's the latter situation where it's weighted since everyone here has less Obelisks than all other drops and banners seem like the second least (except for one person).

Definitely weighted. 

I wonder if phase 1 to 3 will stall when player interest or the black rocks run out. Then there will be no more access to the dungeon for latecomers. Bad for small shard.

Hippo

I've done 75-85 Champions, sometimes one sometimes two characters : If I'm awake I do ATL run at 5:15ish (much less BOTs and crowd) then at 6:15 I do CATs. At 8:15am EST I do Baja. If LS or GL is falling behind schedule, I check them out. I have 8-10 banners spread out among the shards, dozen black cubes, and 4 Obelisks. All 4 OB drops were on CATs and within 5 day span. The RNG smiled on me, all 4 are different hues. It's been about ten days, no Obelisks but if I do not get the other two, I am quite happy to have got these four.  No special luck, no special damage or heals, just blind luck.

keven2002

This post is good to know... at least someone is finding some favorable RNG.

I'm still doing stage 3 at least once or twice a day (sometimes 3) and finding zero luck at all with RNG for the Obelisk. I did add one banner in the last few days and several void cubes, but mostly getting rubble followed by a bag of drops.

• 0x Obelisk
• 5x banners 
• 20x void cubes
• 10x scorched earth

Probably just going to chalk this up to the usual "RNG doesn't like me" and move along.

Lokea

keven2002 said:

Probably just going to chalk this up to the usual "RNG doesn't like me" and move along.

The most I’m getting and have been getting since last month, with 1-3 runs a day, is void cubes,  I don’t know if that makes you feel better or not.  I’d love for some scorched earth or a banner or two.  I’m happy to get extra artifacts in the satchels.

My son is going to start doing one or two a day for a few weeks, and wants to do a spreadsheet of everything he gets in phase 3.  I will laugh and cry if he racks up a few obelisks and banners.

keven2002

Lokea said:

keven2002 said:

Probably just going to chalk this up to the usual "RNG doesn't like me" and move along.

The most I’m getting and have been getting since last month, with 1-3 runs a day, is void cubes,  I don’t know if that makes you feel better or not.  I’d love for some scorched earth or a banner or two.  I’m happy to get extra artifacts in the satchels.

My son is going to start doing one or two a day for a few weeks, and wants to do a spreadsheet of everything he gets in phase 3.  I will laugh and cry if he racks up a few obelisks and banners.

If you are looking for scorched rubble; that drops from the mobs/gates/chests in addition to stage 3. I'd guess that over half of mine came from those. Start hitting a few EQs or Thunderstorms when you are running to the next commander... eventually you will notice scorched rubble in your pack.

My qualm with the Obelisk & Banners is that they only are available 4 times a day (max) on a shard and that's if people even work it... it could be only once or twice and even if you shard hop, you basically need to get lucky that you are checking when it's being done... you need a lot of time/effort/chance to even get the satchels. So when I have easily 400+ satchels (honestly lost count might be 500) without a single Obelisk and only 5 banners that doesn't seem right. I hear the Devs/CM on the "them's the breaks on RNG" but at the same time you cannot tell me that every reward is equally granted because that drop disbursement would look more like the champ spawn from the previous event (the 2 meatballs) where after 100 or 200 spawns you would eventually have at least 1 of each item. /rant

Pawain

They are sweet. 

Lokea

keven2002 said:

If you are looking for scorched rubble; that drops from the mobs/gates/chests in addition to stage 3. I'd guess that over half of mine came from those. Start hitting a few EQs or Thunderstorms when you are running to the next commander... eventually you will notice scorched rubble in your pack.

My qualm with the Obelisk & Banners is that they only are available 4 times a day (max) on a shard and that's if people even work it... it could be only once or twice and even if you shard hop, you basically need to get lucky that you are checking when it's being done... you need a lot of time/effort/chance to even get the satchels. So when I have easily 400+ satchels (honestly lost count might be 500) without a single Obelisk and only 5 banners that doesn't seem right. I hear the Devs/CM on the "them's the breaks on RNG" but at the same time you cannot tell me that every reward is equally granted because that drop disbursement would look more like the champ spawn from the previous event (the 2 meatballs) where after 100 or 200 spawns you would eventually have at least 1 of each item. /rant

My luck is still terrible, and I run an old-school archer slowly turning into an ABC, but I may have to bring my mage out of retirement, or finish out my thief and hit the chests.

LS was absolutely packed this evening, but I didn't hear of anybody getting obelisks or banners.