If Luck Actually Works

Rocko · November 28

Wouldn't the egg drop rate for chests mirror dragon nest drops? Is it the same mechanic? I have yet to see an egg or effigy in a chest but I have seen eggs in nests.

Grimbeard · November 28

I have all the effigy and one egg from chest nothing from nest almost like it's rng...

Victim_Of_Siege · November 28

Grimbeard said:

I have all the effigy and one egg from chest nothing from nest almost like it's rng...

Yep, all of mine have come from chests too.

Mordeed · November 28

600+ eggs collected plus lots dropped, all my event points spent on massive maps plus Ive done all the greater maps Ive collected, a few hours a day hunting for hidden chests and still no mature egg. I have had one effigy. Im wondering what gives the best chance of finding one? Will spending my time hunting chests give me the same chance as buying massive maps?

Victim_Of_Siege · November 28

Mordeed said:

600+ eggs collected plus lots dropped, all my event points spent on massive maps plus Ive done all the greater maps Ive collected, a few hours a day hunting for hidden chests and still no mature egg. I have had one effigy. Im wondering what gives the best chance of finding one? Will spending my time hunting chests give me the same chance as buying massive maps?

No guarantees, but Chests give you a chance at maps, Mature eggs, Artifacts, and Effigy's, without spending your artifacts to get them. That is my personal choice on hunting the elusive Mature eggs.

Venom · November 28

I've done 100+ nests, all greater or above (majority grand or massive) and no mature egg for me. I use 3,000+ luck (and have tried 5,000+ luck for 4 massive, too). Even an increase in chance is just that -- an increase. I am curious what the actual math behind it looks like.

keven2002 · November 29

Venom said:

I've done 100+ nests, all greater or above (majority grand or massive) and no mature egg for me. I use 3,000+ luck (and have tried 5,000+ luck for 4 massive, too). Even an increase in chance is just that -- an increase. I am curious what the actual math behind it looks like.

I'm also curious about what the mathematical impact of luck is; I'm using 5k+ luck as much as possible and only do the Massive/Grand maps; I've only popped 1 mature egg so far. I'd also like to know what the intended drop rate is, just in general, because there have been a few times in the past drop rates have been inaccurate and have needed fixed. Even if the intended drop rate is 1% it's good to know just in case people are getting to like 500 nests and still haven't had a drop they can page a GM to see if something is broken.

popps · November 29

keven2002 said:

Venom said:

I've done 100+ nests, all greater or above (majority grand or massive) and no mature egg for me. I use 3,000+ luck (and have tried 5,000+ luck for 4 massive, too). Even an increase in chance is just that -- an increase. I am curious what the actual math behind it looks like.

I'm also curious about what the mathematical impact of luck is; I'm using 5k+ luck as much as possible and only do the Massive/Grand maps; I've only popped 1 mature egg so far. I'd also like to know what the intended drop rate is, just in general, because there have been a few times in the past drop rates have been inaccurate and have needed fixed. Even if the intended drop rate is 1% it's good to know just in case people are getting to like 500 nests and still haven't had a drop they can page a GM to see if something is broken.

I sure hope that, whatever the drop rate % was to be, it is not a "fixed" drop rate per day whereas, if someone gets a drop, then, no matter how hard other players try, they cannot get a drop, period, because someone already got one...

The other problem that there would be, for such a "fixed" drop rate is that, with BOT-Trains and some players using scripted characters, they are those who would most likely get a drop (because they brute-force the RNG) and should their drop then block drops for the other players, the casual players who neither do BOT-trains nor script their characters would have way more difficulties in getting their drops...

What I am trying to say is, that "if" there is some sort of control of how many Mature eggs spawn per day, I sure hope that this is tailored on characters, not in regards to the overall shard... otherwise, I fear that casual players will get the short hand of the stick and that it will be BOT-trains and players scripting their characters who are going to get the Mature eggs, leaving the rest of the casual players pretty much empty handed, saved the few, rare exceptions.

Bottom line is, to my opinion, besides getting to know how Luck actually works, it would be good to also know how the Developers are handling the spawning of Mature eggs on any given Shard so as to understand whether or not casual players are getting hurt in their chances at a Mature egg drop by the existance of BOT-trains and scripters.

keven2002 · November 29

I said nothing of the sort that there was a "fixed drop rate" wherein there were only so many drops a day. So let's just nip that in the bud now before you take the thread off topic yet again with things that aren't actually true.

To clarify, I'm talking about a "fix" in the sense where the initial drop rate for Umbrascale seemed to break and needed to be fixed (repaired) to be back to the proper drop rate.

KroDuK · November 29

Keven has data we don't have.

Grimbeard · November 29

KroDuK said:

Keven has data we don't have.

We need to tie number of post allowed to hours spent in game

Rocko · December 1

Grimbeard said:

KroDuK said:

Keven has data we don't have.

We need to tie number of post allowed to hours spent in game

lol, +1

Victim_Of_Siege · December 1

Grimbeard said:

KroDuK said:

Keven has data we don't have.

We need to tie number of post allowed to hours spent in game

Please expand on this, what is your proposed formula, what are the prerequisites, How many dogs are required to post, etc.

Grimbeard · December 1

Victim_Of_Siege said:

Grimbeard said:

KroDuK said:

Keven has data we don't have.

We need to tie number of post allowed to hours spent in game

Please expand on this, what is your proposed formula, what are the prerequisites, How many dogs are required to post, etc.

Well the way I see it...

Mariah · December 1

@Grimbeard & @Victim_Of_Siege Be good!

Victim_Of_Siege · December 1

Mariah said:

@ Grimbeard & @ Victim_Of_Siege Be good!

Yes Ma'am.

Necronom · December 1

I'm guessing there's some diminishing returns for luck somewhere in the formula or something...

KroDuK · December 2

Mariah said:

@ Grimbeard & @ Victim_Of_Siege Be good!

Too little, too late... it's been what.. 18 months?

It's the first time..

PS: this is what trolling actually is (90% of grimm/mcdougle posts are, victim must be around 75%).. do better..

Grimbeard · December 2

KroDuK said:

Mariah said:

@ Grimbeard & @ Victim_Of_Siege Be good!

Too little, too late... it's been what.. 18 months?

It's the first time..

PS: this is what trolling actually is (90% of grimm/mcdougle posts are, victim must be around 75%).. do better..

So your temporary ban is up?:?

NuSair · December 2

I know luck works on regular t-maps and loot from creatures, I've tested and seen the differences. I've done over 1000 nest, no idea how many chest my wife has done (3+ hours a day almost every day since event began w/ 2225 luck base, 3625 w/ statue, 4625 w/ clock) and she has gotten 1 effigy, 0 eggs. From nest, the quality nor quality of the loot increases based on luck. So, it is impossible to tell from the player side if it works or not.

keven2002 · December 4

The hardest thing about "RNG" is that difficult to really test the drop rate.

Based on my testing of doing over 350 massive/grand maps; I don't think luck plays that much of a factor. I've typically done nest with at least 3k luck from my suit, but try to aim for doing it with double statue hit for 5300 luck (I swap my suit between toons to get multiple hits). The result... I've now gotten 2 eggs with 1 coming from the 5300 luck run and another coming from the regular luck suit with no statue hits.

Seems pretty random so I'm not sure if luck impacts it that much; then again I haven't dug up more than a handful of nests with minimal luck (under 1k) to compare it.

Pawain · December 4

keven2002 said:

The hardest thing about "RNG" is that difficult to really test the drop rate.

Based on my testing of doing over 350 massive/grand maps; I don't think luck plays that much of a factor. I've typically done nest with at least 3k luck from my suit, but try to aim for doing it with double statue hit for 5300 luck (I swap my suit between toons to get multiple hits). The result... I've now gotten 2 eggs with 1 coming from the 5300 luck run and another coming from the regular luck suit with no statue hits.

Seems pretty random so I'm not sure if luck impacts it that much; then again I haven't dug up more than a handful of nests with minimal luck (under 1k) to compare it.

Luck with nests give a higher chance but the eggs are very rare. So, it takes a lot of chances to get one.

I think they are rare in hidden chests. So players are getting more eggs from those with luck.

The Matriarch seems very rare also. I still just have 2 eggs, but a large quantity of nest maps when I move to that. I have 76 skirts/kilts over 5000 drops on Atl from Matriarchs, so I've done that many. They pop every 15 min and I find them fun.

ForeverFun · December 4

The nitty gritty of luck and the other various mechanics around drops for this events hasn't been published, as far as I've seen. There was a request some time ago to publish the ongoing drop results from the 3 sources, but I haven't seen that.

I've seen a relatively vague statement the chances from a massive nest are greater than a lesser nest. But, you have to factor in something else: TIME. If you can solo 10 greater nests in the time it takes to do 1 massive nest, there's a good chance you have a higher chance of a drop, in a given unit of time, from the "greater nest". That could hold true if the roll-chance happens for each egg in the nest. Having a few people teamed-up doing a massive nest may not make sense.

I've seen some good speculation about how the matriarch drop mechanic works, e.g. odds and max number per matriarch, but it's possibly too diabolical to post. (side note, I read that luck doesn't impact the egg drop chance at matriarch).

Pawain · December 4

Time is also why the Hidden chest finders get more.

For me it takes longer to get to the nest and dig it up than kill the Mobs. Also you can a lot more chests than do nests with the Luck hour.

Victim_Of_Siege · December 4

Pawain said:

For me it takes longer to get to the nest and dig it up than kill the Mobs. Also you can a lot more chests than do nests with the Luck hour.

I can find, open, and clear a chest in half the time of a nest. and all 3 of mine have come from the Chest character, The Nest one has yet to get a Mature Egg, so I would tend to agree with you.

keven2002 · December 4

I've done a ton of matriarchs and still have yet to get a single egg. I haven't done many chests so I can't speak to those numbers but from what I see from others they do seem like better chances.

It's to the point now that when I'm on my luck hour doing nests; I don't even bother stopping for the matriarch (even if I spawn it) because I don't think it's worth the time sink. It takes 5min for it to spawn from the first message; then at least another 5-10min to kill it so that's 10-15min I could be doing more maps on my luck hour.

I'd like to try doing chests but ATL is so competitive with people doing chests that it's actually faster for me to do some maps instead.

One thing that I wonder is how the drops work per toon; if it's pure RNG. Meaning if I spawn an egg (in any fashion) on my tamer; does that toon have the exact same chance to spawn another egg on the very next chests/nest/matriarch? My 2 eggs have come on different toons as I switch my luck suit around so I have yet to get an egg on the same guy.

Rocko · December 5

Pawain said:

Time is also why the Hidden chest finders get more.

For me it takes longer to get to the nest and dig it up than kill the Mobs. Also you can a lot more chests than do nests with the Luck hour.

What pet build are you using for nests? I am running a basic Tryton chiv/ai.

Rocko · December 5

ForeverFun said:

(side note, I read that luck doesn't impact the egg drop chance at matriarch).

Read the same.

I have not noticed or tracked a difference between 0 and 3000 luck. I don't have a suit to reach 4-5,000.

Pawain · December 5

Rocko said:

Pawain said:

Time is also why the Hidden chest finders get more.

For me it takes longer to get to the nest and dig it up than kill the Mobs. Also you can a lot more chests than do nests with the Luck hour.

What pet build are you using for nests? I am running a basic Tryton chiv/ai.

I use my melee guys on the nests. The humans are hard to hit so they slow you down, I try to WW a non human as the target so I don't miss.

So many Mobs on the Massives, it seems it would take a while to kill them one at a time.

I have not tried with a tamer, If I decided to, I would bring my FWW/AI/Chiv Triton to the first one. Tamer would cast Lightning spells or thunderstorm.

Grimbeard · December 5

Rocko said:

Pawain said:

Time is also why the Hidden chest finders get more.

For me it takes longer to get to the nest and dig it up than kill the Mobs. Also you can a lot more chests than do nests with the Luck hour.

What pet build are you using for nests? I am running a basic Tryton chiv/ai.

Disco tamer ice mite with RC

Pawain · December 5

The Mobs seem to stick with a target. I have a Tamer Mage with me to res me in case I die. The mobs never target the tamer. I'll only use the pet for the humans that are remaining after the Melee guy kills everything else. Any pet works on those.

Put the pet on Guard, the tamer invis until the mobs attack the pet, Then tamer casts area spells and help as needed.

This is a good opportunity to take some pets out of the stable and use them. It is a controlled fight.
My PP FWW/Chiv Bake Kitsune would probably work.

Tamer can wear luck easier than melee. My low luck macer wipes the massives out a lot faster than my swordsman with a luck suit. So he will be used on the nest maps I am getting on Atlantic while doing the Matriarch.

Choose the nest size you can do the fastest. As @keven2002 said, more nests/time more chances for the egg.

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If Luck Actually Works

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