Mature Eggs in Hidden Chests : Does Luck really work or not ?

ForeverFun · November 19

KroDuK said:

popps said:
Some players can almost reach 6,000 Luck for..

Luck is artificially hard cap around ~3500 luck. (you pin point that number with google)

Don't believe everything you read in a search engine result.

There was an easter bunny event some years back, where somebody at broadsword left some "logging output" on test center, which showed the results of the luck roll for the "bunny event" (the luck was inspected when the "green thorn" was placed). Around 4,000 luck seemed to guarantee a drop, both in the "logging output", and the code that was published world-wide.

I doubt Google has a fully current copy of the UO server code, so it can't really analyze what the "is" is.

Kyronix or somebody else may one-day describe all the "luck systems", calculations, formulae, etc, but I wouldn't hold breath for that.

The fact a new luck stacking item (pub121 event clock), which adds 1000 lucks, could be an indicator the "goal posts" have moved for certain "luck systems".

popps · November 19

Victim_Of_Siege said:

Popps, what you’ve essentially outlined is the classic “if only we guaranteed drops, bots would pack up and go home” argument which, to put it politely, is about as convincing as saying burglars would stop breaking into houses if everyone just left their doors unlocked.

The way I think it, the argument should be constructed differently...

If a machine was available to create matter (any item) out of thin air (atoms), then burglars would not need to break into houses because they cuold just make whatever they want/need on their own and not take it from others...

Now, in the real world this of course is not possible but in a digital, fictional one ?

To my opinion, if there is some players who BOT and script 24/7 it is because there is a market for whatever they get with their BOT trains and scripting... if it is RNG hard to get items, it is because they can sell them for ridicolously high in game prices, if it is gold, it is because they can sell it for real money.

Now, what would then be the best way to see these BOT trains and 24/7 scripters go if not take that market away from them so that they would not have buyers for their items or gold, or hardly any ?

And what would be the best way to do that if not make it so that the regular, casual players who are the buyers for those items and gold can get their items and gold on their own, just playing the game, without having to buy it from those players who BOT train and script 24/7 ?

At least, that is how I see it.

popps · November 19

KroDuK said:

popps said:
Some players can almost reach 6,000 Luck for..

Luck is artificially hard cap around ~3500 luck. (you pin point that number with google)

Like I said before, u totally ignore the odds.. let's say you have two chances on 10 000.
2/10k with 0 luck.
Let's say the artificial hardcap brings you to 3 chances.. wich is HUGE.. on paper.. but your odds are still 3 chances on 10 000 with 150% chances the 0 luck gets.

If you are lucky on something rare with totally random RNG (wich does not exist IRL, cuz nature is beautiful, only in *snip* codes) You won't care about the luck.

In my book, you would be a dumbass to not stack the maximum chances on your side.

To give you an example you may understand better.. you are playing Lotto and you can get an extra free ticket via luck. Does it increase your chances of winning? I would argue it does not.. u still going to lose, but your odds are clearly better.. it's all about luck and star alignment -.-

I wouldn't be surprised to learn the mature eggs drop code had a line to regulate it over time.. not totally at random.. easier to control the supply for the dev.. someone stole your fire. (like the old gauntlet artifact were or like the old skill gain system)
If the time has something to do, like I suspect.. do not nest on prime time.. you going to increase your odds doing it in the middle of the night.

A dumb example to make sur eu understand.. old gauntlet artifact would drop once every ~4 hours.. no matter the shard u were playing on.. if u arrive on zone.. you know an artifact drop recently.. u losing your time if u hunt for arti. You could train 0.1-0.2 every 24 hours by doing 2-3 craft a day. instead of gaining 0.8 a day for 8 hours crafting.

It's a safe guard UO dev loves to use when it's not something like building a pool of point. To streamline and control the drops on rarer stuff.. like stealable artifact timer.. just not as precise.

TL;DR I wouldn'T be surprise it's totally random.. until the moment it's not (like none drop in the last x hours.. one is due soon enough) So u won't have 3 eggs dropping in a short period for none dropping in days. Try to nest during night time and avoid prime time and let me know
PS: always increase your odds with luck if possible.

Luck is artificially hard cap around ~3500 luck. (you pin point that number with google)

In July 2021 Kyronix said :

The functional max of Luck is around 4,000, so you're about halfway there.

Luck is working as intended, it will impact both the intensity of randomly generated magical items created as minor artifacts from Treasures of ... and it will influence whether you get one of those minor artifacts.

https://forum.uo.com/discussion/comment/60794/#Comment_60794

The thing is, that since then, with the Events that have run over these years, more items with Luck have been released helping to increase the Luck that players can wear with their suits so, I do not know whether this functional Luck has been increased from that around 4,000 ,

TL;DR I wouldn'T be surprise it's totally random.. until the moment it's not (like none drop in the last x hours.. one is due soon enough) So u won't have 3 eggs dropping in a short period for none dropping in days. Try to nest

Well, about that, I would not so sure...

I do not know about Nests but, doing Hidden Chests, I have had 2 Effigies show up within like 10 chests from one another... yes, I have also had hours and hours and dayd upon days not seeing one but if what you said was the case, how come that I got to have 2 Effigies show up one after another within only 10 chests ?

KroDuK · November 19

ForeverFun said:
for certain "luck systems".

Make sense, could be possible.. till they share data or someone datamine..

I would stick with this artificial luck hardcap.

KroDuK · November 19

popps said:
Luck is artificially hard cap around ~3500 luck. (you pin point that number with google)

In July 2021 Kyronix said :

The functional max of Luck is around 4,000, so you're about halfway there.

Luck is working as intended, it will impact both the intensity of randomly generated magical items created as minor artifacts from Treasures of ... and it will influence whether you get one of those minor artifacts.
https://forum.uo.com/discussion/comment/60794/#Comment_60794

The thing is, that since then, with the Events that have run over these years, more items with Luck have been released helping to increase the Luck that players can wear with their suits so, I do not know whether this functional Luck has been increased from that around 4,000 ,

nvm, I'll do it for you:

Image: https://forum.uo.com/uploads/editor/a0/of5jwo37kilq.png

https://www.uoguide.com/Luck

The effigie stuff is not what I'm talking about.. not even close.

Victim_Of_Siege · November 19

popps said:

Victim_Of_Siege said:

Popps, what you’ve essentially outlined is the classic “if only we guaranteed drops, bots would pack up and go home” argument which, to put it politely, is about as convincing as saying burglars would stop breaking into houses if everyone just left their doors unlocked.

The way I think it, the argument should be constructed differently...

If a machine was available to create matter (any item) out of thin air (atoms), then burglars would not need to break into houses because they cuold just make whatever they want/need on their own and not take it from others...

Now, in the real world this of course is not possible but in a digital, fictional one ?

To my opinion, if there is some players who BOT and script 24/7 it is because there is a market for whatever they get with their BOT trains and scripting... if it is RNG hard to get items, it is because they can sell them for ridicolously high in game prices, if it is gold, it is because they can sell it for real money.

Now, what would then be the best way to see these BOT trains and 24/7 scripters go if not take that market away from them so that they would not have buyers for their items or gold, or hardly any ?

And what would be the best way to do that if not make it so that the regular, casual players who are the buyers for those items and gold can get their items and gold on their own, just playing the game, without having to buy it from those players who BOT train and script 24/7 ?

At least, that is how I see it.

Popps, I must commend the imaginative flourish of invoking atom‑generating machines as an analogy, but unfortunately the comparison collapses under the weight of its own metaphor. In the real world, burglars do not cease to exist simply because scarcity is removed; they merely redirect their efforts toward whatever remains scarce, valuable, or exploitable. And in the digital world, bots and scripts operate under precisely the same principle: they do not vanish when the mechanics change, they adapt to whatever system is in place, whether that system is probabilistic RNG or deterministic counters.

To restate this in alternate wording for emphasis because repetition seems to be the lingua franca here. Scarcity, not randomness, is the engine of value. Bots exist because there is demand, and demand exists because not everything is instantly and universally obtainable. If you replace RNG with a Doom‑style punch‑card counter, the bots will not pack up and retire; they will simply optimize the counter faster than any casual player could, thereby cornering the market on “guaranteed” drops instead of “random” ones. In other words, the incentive structure remains intact, merely translated from probability to inevitability.

Put differently, and redundantly for clarity: your proposal does not eliminate the disparity between scripted play and normal play, it merely shifts the axis of exploitation. Bots thrive not because RNG exists, but because scarcity exists and scarcity, whether random or metered, is what creates both value and markets. Remove randomness, and you don’t remove botting; you just change the math they use to profit.

So, in summary though I have deliberately reiterated this in multiple guises to match your style the notion that guaranteed drops would somehow dissolve bot trains is less a solution and more a mirage. It is, in essence, a paradox dressed up as reform: advocating for the amplification of a mechanic whose insignificance you have already demonstrated, while simultaneously proposing a mechanism that would render that mechanic irrelevant.

And that, expressed in the most professional yet unmistakably tongue in cheek and deliberately over elaborated phrasing available, represents at least insofar as my own interpretive faculties and subjective vantage point are concerned the particular manner in which the situation appears to me, or to phrase it differently for rhetorical redundancy, the conclusion toward which my reasoning inclines me when filtered through the prism of my personal evaluative framework. Restated once more in slightly varied formulation for emphasis, this should not be mistaken for an absolute decree but rather for the idiosyncratic, localized account of how the circumstances manifest themselves when processed by my own thought patterns, thereby amounting, in essence, to nothing more and nothing less than the way in which I personally happen to see it.

popps · November 19

Bots exist because there is demand, and demand exists because not everything is instantly and universally obtainable. If you replace RNG with a Doom‑style punch‑card counter, the bots will not pack up and retire; they will simply optimize the counter faster than any casual player could, thereby cornering the market on “guaranteed” drops instead of “random” ones. In other words, the incentive structure remains intact, merely translated from probability to inevitability.

Bots exist because there is demand.

Yes.

If I understand your argument, you say that, even with a counter style mechanics, BOTters and Scripters would "adjust" to the new mechanics and still farm these items and that non BOTters and non Scripters players would still but these items from these other players rather then getting them their own.

This is where I think our thinking differs.

You think, If I understood you correctly, that there would still be a market and that non BOTters and non Scripters would still buy these items, even if now, with a changed "counter-style" mechanics they could get them on their own in the game and thus not need to buy them from other players, while I, instead, think that if the items were less absurd to get, non BOTters and non Scripters would get these items just playing the game (the counter-style would ensure them to get them, at some point), albeit less frequently then Botters but indeed allow them to get them.

That is, I questrion, why would non BOTters and non Scripters players want/need to buy these items from the BOTters if they could get these items on their own ?

After all, they play the game for fun and just playing the game, they would eventually meet the counter-style X requirement and get that drop. Why then buy the items from BOTters and Scripters and not play the game instead to get them ?

But if so, wouldn't that "demand" then cease to exist or, at the very least, go deep down so as to take away most reasons for BOTters and scripters to farm Events to then enormously profit from that from their sale at extremely high prices for those items ?

As it is now, I have read of non power gamers getting "burned out" because uncovering thousands upon thousands (over tens, hundreds of their real life hours spent in the process) of hidden chests and Nest Maps and getting zero Mature eggs... becoming entirely tired and fed of it (and possibly of the game itself)... with a counter style system, yes, BOTters and Scripters would still get more of these items and faster as you say YET, and this is the core of my argument, non BOTters and non Scripters would then be able, contrary to what it is now, to get their wanted drop on their own (now it seems to be rather impossible for many, unless they brute-force the RNG) thus no longer needing to get to the BOTters and Scripters and pay ridicolous high prices for them.

The demand would indeed drop and so the reasons for BOTers and Scripters to BOT train and script.

That is at least how I see it.

KroDuK · November 19

popps said:
The demand would indeed drop and so the reasons for BOTers and Scripters to BOT train and script.

That is at least how I see it.

You are assuming bots only do it to sale for IG gold or RMTers.. These bots are actual players subbing a lot of account as a slave force.
99% of non affiliate RMT'ers has been ban ~14 yrs ago

How many mature eggs is too many?
For some it's gonna be 10; others 1k.

This wouldn't be an issue on a good risk vs reward sandbox game.
Your issue is actually a solution for Boardsword studio.

popps · November 19

KroDuK said:

popps said:
The demand would indeed drop and so the reasons for BOTers and Scripters to BOT train and script.

That is at least how I see it.

You are assuming bots only do it to sale for IG gold or RMTers.. These bots are actual players subbing a lot of account as a slave force.
99% of non affiliate RMT'ers has been ban ~14 yrs ago

How many mature eggs is too many?
For some it's gonna be 10; others 1k.

This wouldn't be an issue on a good risk vs reward sandbox game.
Your issue is actually a solution for Boardsword studio.

And where would be the problem, if any ?

If some players want to get and use for themselves 10 Mature eggs or 1k Mature eggs I am good with it, they play the game like everyone else and if their cup of tea is to get and use for themselves 10 or 1k Mature eggs then be it.

What I do not like, is a mechanics whereas items are made nigh to impossible to get if not with brute-force the RNG (hence BOT trains and 24/7 scripting) which then forces other players who do not BOT nor script, to have to go to those who do it to buy those items for ridicolously high amounts of in game gold (or real money, sometimes...).

I would MUCH rather prefer a counter system like in Doom whereas players could earn their items in the game, playing the game, without having to brute-force the RNG somehow or buy them for ridicolously high prices from those who do or where so extremely lucky to get them even if they didn't.

Furthermore, I am talking nothing new... this was already done for the DOOM Dungeon.

Why then not replicate it also for other rare drops ?

That is at least how I see it.

keven2002 · November 19

ForeverFun said:

KroDuK said:

popps said:
Some players can almost reach 6,000 Luck for..

Luck is artificially hard cap around ~3500 luck. (you pin point that number with google)

Don't believe everything you read in a search engine result.

There was an easter bunny event some years back, where somebody at broadsword left some "logging output" on test center, which showed the results of the luck roll for the "bunny event" (the luck was inspected when the "green thorn" was placed). Around 4,000 luck seemed to guarantee a drop, both in the "logging output", and the code that was published world-wide.

I doubt Google has a fully current copy of the UO server code, so it can't really analyze what the "is" is.

Kyronix or somebody else may one-day describe all the "luck systems", calculations, formulae, etc, but I wouldn't hold breath for that.

The fact a new luck stacking item (pub121 event clock), which adds 1000 lucks, could be an indicator the "goal posts" have moved for certain "luck systems".

I asked this on a 5 on Friday post which received a somewhat vague response, but a response nonetheless. Kyronix said that there is no hard cap on luck and that it's implemented on a "per system basis". Here is the link to the thread (November 7th was the day it was answered).

https://forum.uo.com/discussion/16437/five-on-friday-answers#latest ;

Merlin asked a follow up question to help us understand which systems use which and to help de-mystify all things luck which I'm hoping they will oblige and help us out.

Grimbeard · November 19

Popps needs to take this to discord in the feedback section

Victim_Of_Siege · November 19

popps said:

Bots exist because there is demand, and demand exists because not everything is instantly and universally obtainable. If you replace RNG with a Doom‑style punch‑card counter, the bots will not pack up and retire; they will simply optimize the counter faster than any casual player could, thereby cornering the market on “guaranteed” drops instead of “random” ones. In other words, the incentive structure remains intact, merely translated from probability to inevitability.

Bots exist because there is demand.

Yes.

If I understand your argument, you say that, even with a counter style mechanics, BOTters and Scripters would "adjust" to the new mechanics and still farm these items and that non BOTters and non Scripters players would still but these items from these other players rather then getting them their own.

This is where I think our thinking differs.

You think, If I understood you correctly, that there would still be a market and that non BOTters and non Scripters would still buy these items, even if now, with a changed "counter-style" mechanics they could get them on their own in the game and thus not need to buy them from other players, while I, instead, think that if the items were less absurd to get, non BOTters and non Scripters would get these items just playing the game (the counter-style would ensure them to get them, at some point), albeit less frequently then Botters but indeed allow them to get them.

That is, I questrion, why would non BOTters and non Scripters players want/need to buy these items from the BOTters if they could get these items on their own ?

After all, they play the game for fun and just playing the game, they would eventually meet the counter-style X requirement and get that drop. Why then buy the items from BOTters and Scripters and not play the game instead to get them ?

But if so, wouldn't that "demand" then cease to exist or, at the very least, go deep down so as to take away most reasons for BOTters and scripters to farm Events to then enormously profit from that from their sale at extremely high prices for those items ?

As it is now, I have read of non power gamers getting "burned out" because uncovering thousands upon thousands (over tens, hundreds of their real life hours spent in the process) of hidden chests and Nest Maps and getting zero Mature eggs... becoming entirely tired and fed of it (and possibly of the game itself)... with a counter style system, yes, BOTters and Scripters would still get more of these items and faster as you say YET, and this is the core of my argument, non BOTters and non Scripters would then be able, contrary to what it is now, to get their wanted drop on their own (now it seems to be rather impossible for many, unless they brute-force the RNG) thus no longer needing to get to the BOTters and Scripters and pay ridicolous high prices for them.

The demand would indeed drop and so the reasons for BOTers and Scripters to BOT train and script.

That is at least how I see it.

Popps, while I admire the persistence with which you continue to re‑articulate your position, what you have essentially constructed here is less an argument and more a thought experiment in speculative economics, complete with atom‑generating machines and utopian assumptions about human behavior. To phrase it differently, you are imagining a digital Eden in which scarcity evaporates simply because a counter exists, and in which players, suddenly liberated from the cruel hand of RNG, will universally choose to grind patiently rather than seek shortcuts. This, however, runs directly counter to the observable reality of every online economy ever devised, where demand is driven not only by rarity but by impatience, convenience, and the perennial human desire to have something now rather than eventually.

Restated in alternate wording for emphasis: players do not buy from botters solely because they cannot get items on their own, they buy because they do not wish to wait. The market exists not because RNG is insurmountable, but because time is finite and attention is scarce. If you install a counter, the bots will not vanish into the ether; they will simply optimize the counter more efficiently, reach thresholds faster, and flood the market with guaranteed drops. And casual players, faced with the choice between grinding for hours or paying for instant gratification, will continue to create demand. Thus, the demand does not disappear it merely shifts from “maybe I’ll never get it” to “I don’t want to spend the time to get it.”

Put differently, and redundantly for rhetorical flourish: scarcity is not eliminated by counters, it is merely re‑packaged. The rare item remains rare because it requires effort, and effort is precisely what bots are designed to bypass. Your proposal, therefore, does not dissolve the market; it simply changes the math by which the market operates. Bots thrive not because RNG exists, but because impatience exists, and impatience is a resource more abundant than any hidden chest or nest map.

So, in summary, though I have deliberately reiterated this in multiple guises to match your style, the notion that guaranteed drops would somehow dissolve bot trains is less a solution and more a mirage. It is, in essence, a paradox dressed up as reform: advocating for the amplification of a mechanic whose insignificance you have already demonstrated, while simultaneously proposing a mechanism that would render that mechanic irrelevant. And that, articulated in the most professional yet unmistakably tongue‑in‑cheek and deliberately over‑elaborated phrasing available, is precisely, definitively, and redundantly how I see it.

Grimbeard · 12:12AM

What vic is say is that I have more time than money and the uo store should sell everything the RMT people do cheaper so I can buy my stuff and fish in the leetest gear

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Mature Eggs in Hidden Chests : Does Luck really work or not ?

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